As the Russian assault on Ukraine approaches its second month, researchers at the University of Oxford have revealed that the U.K. has paid some $30 billion for Russian oil and gas since the country’s 2014 invasion of Crimea—enough money to enable Vladimir Putin to purchase 8,000 next-generation main battle tanks.
In a special analysis released by Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, the researchers show that Britain could eliminate the need for Russian oil by 2023 and Russian gas imports by 2024 if the government were to follow advice set out by the country’s Climate Change Committee (CCC).
Further, they reveal that the U.K. could eliminate the need for Russian gas entirely if every household was to lower its central heating by 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit).
“It is shocking to think that … we have paid £22 billion to Russia, where Putin has embarked on a cruel and destructive war,” said Cameron Hepburn, the Smith School’s director, noting that that sort of money could enable Russia to field 8,000 T-14 Armata advanced battle tanks. With its price tag of $4 million per vehicle, the T-14 hasn’t yet been deployed in combat, with some analysts suggesting the tank is simply too costly to risk losing.
“Money going out the door to pay for oil and gas can instead be invested on installing cheaper clean energy, saving U.K. households money in the long-term and helping to protect the planet,” Hepburn went on.
He explained that remaining committed to the CCC’s 2020 “balanced net zero pathway” [PDF] would cut the U.K.’s overall demand for oil and gas by 30% from 2022-30, saving some £70 billion ($93 billion) by the end of the decade.
“A demand reduction like this would offer the U.K. the option of eliminating the most expensive imports first or the strategic option of eliminating Russian gas and oil imports by 2024,” he said.
The CCC’s plan lays out an investment strategy that targets reducing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions 78% by 2035 from 1990 levels. The plan calls for increased investment of around £50 billion ($66 billion) per year by 2030, delivered largely by the private sector to, among other measures, continue the energy transition away from fossil fuels, retrofit buildings and build infrastructure for electric vehicles. In conjunction with government policy, the CCC says returns on those investments would be wide-ranging, including large-scale job creation, lower bills for consumers, and improved health outcomes.
The Oxford analysis also includes a recommendation to “turn down by 1 degree,” finding that “the U.K. could eliminate its need for Russian gas supply if all domestic households were to turn their thermostats down by 1 degree [Celsius].” This calculation is based on the work of Simon Evans, a researcher and deputy editor at Carbon Brief, who estimated that lowering thermostats by 1 degree Celsius would reduce natural gas demand by 21 terawatt-hours per year. The Oxford researchers noted that this is approximately equivalent to the share of Russian gas used in the U.K.’s energy mix.
The Russian economy, and by extension the country’s military, is deeply dependent on the export of fossil fuels. In recognition of this, earlier this month the European Union released a plan to dramatically reduce imports of Russian natural gas, while the U.S. banned imports of Russian oil.
The U.K., however, has in recent days sent mixed messages about its reliance on Russian energy imports. Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently penned an article in which he emphasized the necessity of reducing dependency on Russian fossil fuels, yet just days later his government claimed there is no need to reduce oil and gas demand, saying that “unlike Europe we are not dependent on Russian energy imports.”
The Oxford analysis came the same day that the UN’s secretary general, António Guterres, warned on Twitter that the war in the Ukraine should not undermine efforts to eliminate the use of fossil fuels. “Addiction to fossil fuels is mutually assured destruction,” Guterres wrote. “Instead of hitting the brakes on the decarbonization of the global economy, now is the time to race towards a renewable energy future.”
The analysis, “Opportunity cost of UK dependence on Russian oil and gas,” can be viewed here [PDF].
