The success of a “significant reorganisation” of Russian forces in Ukraine will be “key” in deciding the outcome of Kyiv’s drive to push them from the area around Kherson, the UK’s defence ministry has said.
The Ministry of Defence issued its latest intelligence update on Twitter on Tuesday after Ukraine on Monday claimed to have launched a counterattack to retake Kherson, which Russia captured early in its renewed attack on Ukraine in February.
The MoD acknowledged Kyiv’s move, saying “several brigades” of Ukraine’s armed forces had increased artillery fire in sectors across the south of the country. But it was “not yet possible” to confirm the extent of their advances, the ministry said.
It noted, however, that since the start of August Russia had made “significant efforts” to strengthen its troops on the western bank of the River Dnipro around Kherson. Most Russian forces are east of the river.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 30 August 2022
Find out more about the UK government’s response: https://t.co/q3wYzVuyKz
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— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 30, 2022
“The Southern Military District’s 49th Combined Arms Army has highly likely been augmented with components of the Eastern Military District’s 35th Combined Arms Army,” the ministry wrote.
Most of the units around Kherson were probably understaffed and reliant upon fragile supply lines, the ministry added.
“This integration of [the two district] units suggests a significant reorganisation of Russia’s force in Ukraine,” the ministry wrote.
There was a “realistic possibility” Russia had “moved to rationalise” the command structure that contributed to its poor performance early in the invasion, the MoD added.
The success of that reorganisation would be critical to the outcome of Ukraine’s offensive, the department concluded.
“If Ukraine succeeds in undertaking sustained offensive operations, the cohesion of this untested structure will likely be a key factor in the sustainability of Russian defences in the south,” the department wrote.
