If you’re trying to time the market, as many have done since the year turned and shares started crashing, you might be looking at a wide range of indicators.
Such as say, whether an index is refusing to cross its 200-day moving average, or if short interest starts to decline. The typical stuff someone checks on their $24,000-a-year financial instant messaging service Bloomberg terminal.
But perhaps there’s a better, and cheaper, technical indicator out there for those trying to catch a falling knife: the ratio of El Risitas to Dimitri memes on Twitter.
We’re pretty sure you know them. In one — “El Risitas” — a Spanish talk show interview breaks down into wheezy, riotous hysterics. In the other — “Dimitri” — a young Russian man being interviewed at a rave stops talking and starts dancing, as drug induced euphoria swallows his body and brain.
Both clips transcend language. And for that reason, much like the infamous bunker scene from Downfall, both have become a favourite of meme creators the world over.
Dimitri is the perfect template for describing the unwitting bull market hero: the guy who thought he had lost it all on some utter trash only to find it has become a 10 bagger overnight. Here is the inimitable @KennethDredd using it to describe the incredible rally in bankrupted car rental giant Hertz in June 2020:
$HTZ pic.twitter.com/kdskzCBtIt
— Kenneth Dredd (@KennethDredd) June 10, 2020
The yin to Dimitri’s yang, the Joker to his Batman, is El Risitas: the perfect template for adding captions describing an utter fiasco.
And what bigger fiascos are there than market fiascos?
If you don’t know what we’re talking about, here’s an example of the El Risitas meme put together by @EffMktHype last November when Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey’s comments about faster than expected interest rate rises caused steep losses at several macro funds who had made the opposite bet:
For those interested in the back-story, the clip in question is of legendary Spanish comedian Juan Joya Borja (better known as El Risitas) on a late-night chat show in 2001.
While our Spanish is not quite good enough to follow the intricacies, we are reliably informed he is recounting a shaggy-dog story about how he tried to clean 20 paella dishes in the sea, only for them to be swept away. (El Risitas sadly passed away last year at the age of 65. RIP.)
The finance community have taken to it like no other. The first time Rob remembers seeing it applied to markets was well over half a decade ago, when a grizzled former Bund trader showed him a spin on it — not the typical patient-zero for an internet meme:
First time I ever saw this meme format was circa 2015/16. A colleague, who was a former Bund trader, showed me a version crafted for whatever face-ripping market move had carried out a bunch of 🤡s that week.
something about the format that is just perfect for market fuck ups https://t.co/C18vrVHCoZ
— Robert Smith (@BondHack) January 26, 2022
With stock markets around the world experiencing intraday swings that would make even Bobby Axelrod nauseous, it is no surprise that our Twitter timeline is chocked full of El Risitas, laughing through his practically toothless mouth about the plummeting value of your stonk portfolio.
Less seen at the moment, however, is the Dimitri meme because, well, there’s a notable absence of market euphoria. Except, of course, among the cabal of evil shorties:
mark it all to zero pic.twitter.com/GEhkAzfujC
— Kenneth Dredd (@KennethDredd) January 26, 2022
So here’s an idea for algo traders. Set up a screen for the ratio of Risitas to Dimitri memes being posted on Finance Twitter. If the number is above 1, it’s time to dump stock. Below 1? Buy with both hands.
If you do, call it the FAMI — the FT Alphaville Meme Indicator. Just don’t blame us if it doesn’t work.
